My other old pal Harsh Krishna Rohatgi also did his own brilliant analysis of the recently-concluded Indian Elections.
PS. Sorry, no Sarah Michelle Gellar photo for Harsh :-( Though, on the other hand, he is running NDTV!
Dude, this is a great thing. I didn't think they would be able to get close to a majority with the bunch of allies they had.
BUT, now that we all have the benefit of hindsight, I'd like to put down a few factors leading to their victory. Some of these were of his doing, and some of others:
- Focus on the rural economy with 2 major initiatives: the National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (Google it to learn more about this; quite a remarkable piece of legislation, though with enough scope for corruption, etc.) and the loan waiver for farmers. After a few decades, the terms of trade have started to shift towards the rural economy, so even while there is a fair bit of stress in the urban economy, and some sectors which are necessarily dependent on the urban economy (real estate, cars and commercial vehicles to a large extent and the print and TV news media), what I have seen in my business is that the consumer goods companies are recording great growth rates in sales. Essentially, chunks of the rural economy have started to play catch-up, though still a long way to go - which also means, there is much headroom in terms of growth and opportunities.
- Growth of regional parties that ate into the BJP/NDA's vote-share: two examples are Raj Thakeray's MNS in Maharashtra and Chiranjeevi's party in Andhra Pradesh. Both hurt the BJP and its allies, and ended up helping the Congress
- Urban areas have appreciated the development of basic necessities and infrastructure: note the Congress clean-sweep in both Delhi and Bombay (though the MNS did hurt the Shiv Sena/BJP in Bombay)
- National Security is an electoral non-issue: most of India is too busy trying to survive on a daily basis to worry about the nuclear bomb, Pakistan, Taliban, Al Qaeda, etc. What matters to them is the basics, and who they believe can deliver them to them in the short-term. The BJP made a big issue of national security and it did nothing for them. Most voters in India are actually pretty immune to current affairs as they are media-dark as far as current affairs and news go. Within that, half the population is women, who really don't give a toss. If they are not being told who to vote for by their menfolk, they would probably base their vote on empathy (notice how Lalu Prasad and Indira Gandhi and now, to a lesser extent Sonia, kept getting the votes) or who they believe will provide them with basic services that affect their daily lives: running drinking water, roads, electricity, primary health, schools, etc.
- Allying with the US: again, another non-issue. Most people don't know and don't care.
- Nationalisation of government-owned companies, increasing sectoral caps on foreign-investment: These are the issues of the Left parties in India. Organised labour in India comprises 30 million out of a total work-force of 500 million. So far, the organised labour managed to create a strong political space amongst themselves, and therefore propped the Left (not the complete story as to how they've lasted so long in Bengal, but certainly a part of it). For the common man, these are again non-issues, though it can become an emotive one at particular points in time. The Left parties seem to disconnected with what people want, that they really screwed themselves over. Good thing too...
At a macro-level, India is a federation of many different peoples. In order for any political party to manage to get a positive verdict from so many different aspirations, levels of development, etc., it is imperative that any such pan-India political formation tread the centrist path. At best, a bit left-of-centre. The BJP managed to form a government by actually moving close to the centre. The reason why the BJP screwed itself up this time around was possibly because they moved too far to the right. And the Commies moved too far to the left, possibly believing that their inordinately good electoral performance was a nod for them to move further to the left. I think they got that the last time around because the Congress possibly was not the usual left-of-centre. I'm sure there is better political analysis available out there as to why this happened.
The lesson that the politicos have to get from this is that people want basic bread-and-butter issues to be addressed. Most other issues are too far removed and out of most peoples' abilities to comprehend. I hope the new Congress government bears that in mind. The way I see it, they should continue to invest in the rural areas, and also create better conditions for private investment in the urban-economy. That would be doing India a big favour.
The guy who probably understood all of this and got it right was Rahul Gandhi. I think he figured what the electoral issues were - either in peoples' minds or latent, but waiting to come out. He tapped into it more effectively than all the others and it paid off for him. Good on him. Seems an honest and earnest fellow. If he decides to remain outside the government and working to revive the Congress, he will really go up in my estimation. Let's see...
Okay dude, trust that was enough!
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