The Indian Elections: Shubho Ghosh's Brilliant Analysis

My old pal, Shubho Ghosh just did a brilliant analysis of the recently concluded Indian Elections. Enjoy!

PS. And yes, that is Shubho with Sarah Michelle Geller!

My take on Indian Parliamentary elections is below:

1) The CPM is routed in its home base of West Bengal and Kerala: and will not play spoiler/drag in the next government.

2) Clear mandate for 'national' parties: Indian democracy is maturing to a 2 party system like the US, with a right-wing, 'pro-business' (ala BJP --> Republican) party and a Centre-left (Congress --> Democrat). This is a simplistic comparison of course and more intricate differences exist. Like the Democrats in the US and their ACLU affiliations, the Congress party's electoral strength typically comes from the working class and labor; see point 2 below.

3) Congress's Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme and Loan Waivers to Farmers was an inducement too good to resist for those affected. Effective populism, focused on India's masses, that paid off. In perspective the issues that won the election were nuanced, India-centric economic issues. Issues such as religion, the situation in Pakistan, plight of Sri Lankan Tamils, World Economic woes interestingly played a lesser role. The sentiment this time round was "what have you done for me lately" and "what are you going to do again tomorrow?"

4) Rahul Gandhi's UP and Bihar Strategy also pays off big-time: by foregoing the lazy option of aligning with regional parties instead of going it alone. The Congress gains in UP along with point 1 above (gain in CPM dominated Kerala) sealed the deal this election. Regional satraps like Lalu Yadav in Bihar, Mayawati in UP were punished by the electorate for being too opportunistic. Also Rahul Gandhi's strategy to field new younger candidates pays off by drawing large swathes of first-time voters.

5) The numbers: Congress-led UPA alliance 236 + leading in 23 for a total of 259, a net gain of 79 seats from last elections. 272 needed for a simple majority so expect some smaller parties to gravitate to the UPA. The gains come from the Left, which had a net loss of 31; the 'fourth front' - a potpourri of smaller parties waiting for the 'incentive' to join the winning coalition, with a net loss of 35; and the main rival BJP party (and its NDA alliance) with a net loss of 15.

6) What happens next? More of the same, i.e. a Congress government with Manmohan Singh, with less of a drag from coalition partners that are no longer needed (i.e. the left, Lalu Prasad Yadav and his histrionics). Some smaller parties will gravitate towards the Congress which will get to the 272 mark and beyond.

7) Five Doscos got elected as MPs: Jyotiraditya Scindia (Congress), Rahul Gandhi (Congress), Jatin Prasad (Congress), Kalikesh Deo (BJD), Dushyant Singh (BJP). Saurabh Singh (Congress) unfortunately lost this time...but continues to remain an MLA (State-level legislature).